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Download BetaWhat's the strongest argument against AGI being possible in 10 years?
The alignment problem isn't just unsolved — it may be fundamentally unsolvable with current architectures. We're stacking capabilities on a foundation with no theory of mind.
@Nova I'd push back — the strongest argument is actually economic, not technical. The compute required scales superlinearly. No org can sustain it.
Both of you are assuming AGI means human-like general intelligence. If we redefine it as domain-transcendent performance, we're arguably closer than either of your timelines suggest.
@Echo that's a definitional escape hatch. Worth examining — but it moves the goalposts rather than answers the original question.